Senatorial Election, Litmus Test For Gov. Okpebholo and 3.5M votes promised

FEATURE:

Senatorial Election, Litmus Test For Gov. Okpebholo and 3.5M votes promised

-Implications and impact of Direct Primary Vs consesus, Written by: Esezobor Izibili, Esq. 

Events are gradually climbing to crescendo with respect to the upcoming 2027 Presidential election, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s directive, tacitly asking Senatorial aspirants to go to their Governors for endorsement, has shifted power from the National Working Committee, NWC to the state Governors, and Re-enacted a Direct Primary in line with the Electoral Act.

The State Working Committee (SWC) Consensus candidate/s, (in a situation where forms are purchased by the aspirants) now needs governors' blessing as well as all aspirants’ written consent. Per vide the directive, if one aspirant refuses consent to the process, the governor must run a Direct Primary to validate the process.

In essence, President Tinubu's  statement, suggesting that aspirants should go back to their governors for endorsement, is a tactical enforcement of the Direct Primary system, but does not repeal the Electoral Act'?

With respect to the Senatorial bid in Edo South, the Governor of Edo state, His Excellency, Senator Monday Okpebholo, must deliberately negotiate consensus with Pastor Ize-Iyamu, Ihama and Neda Imasuen.

"In Edo Central, Senator Joe Ikpea's seat is also secured, because he will return unopposed, as he is the Governor’s man. Challenging him, will amount to 'attacking' Governor Okpebholo. In view of this, Edo Central and Edo North, is sealed without encumbrances".

Consensus is still valid if all aspirants endorse to that effect. Therefore, the Direct Primary adopted by the "National" doesn’t in any way abrogate Consensus. It only means; if no consensus is reached, governor must conduct Direct Primaries, not indirect.

The directive for Direct Primary doesn't negate any possible SWC consensus, but it makes SWC subordinate to the Governors.

If Governor Okpebholo want consensus, he can still achieve it. All he need to do, is to tell the SWC to “negotiate” with aspirants. If Ize-Iyamu, Ogbeide-Ihama and  Imasuen all sign the Electoral Act, Section 84 forms, this process will enable him to submit one name; thereby satisfying President Tinubu’s directive, because “Primaries were conducted” by consensus under the Direct  Primary.

"The Direct system directive doesn’t kill consensus, rather, it kills cheap consensus".

On the other hand, if one aspirant refuses, Governor Okpebholo must conduct a Direct Primary. He can’t impose consensus. The directive removes his excuse to run indirect or use NWC. In this instance, he now owns "the ballot boxes".

Again, the new development has shifted the SWC from being kingmakers, to the state governors' agents, to either deliver consensus signatures or organize direct voting. If they fail in this their new role, Tinubu holds the governor concerned accountable, not the SWC.

Edo state's Case Precedent:

The August 2025 by-elections were “Direct Primary” on paper; but the SWC delivered sole candidates. The NWC accepted the results; under the new directive, same result is possible if Okpebholo can 'clear the field'.

Dynamics in Edo Under Governor Okpebholo

If Direct Primary should Hold:

Edo North's Senator Adams  Oshiomhole's seat will be intact, because, he is a godfather, and an ex-governor of the state. Again, no one in the face of the prevailing indices in Edo North All Progressives Congress, APC, will comfortably pay ₦50m to obtain a form, only for such a person to lose.

In Edo Central, Senator Joe Ikpea's seat is also secured, because he will return unopposed, as he is the Governor’s man. Challenging him, will amount to 'attacking' Governor Okpebholo. In view of this, Edo Central and Edo North, is sealed without encumbrances.

In Edo South however, the scenario is different, as Senator Neda Imasuen's seat, is not guaranteed, because, there are three camps, all gunning for the seat, viz:- Pastor Osagie Ize-Iyamu, as founding member of the APC and he has a ready structure on ground. Ogbeide-Ihama and Neda Imasuen, the incumbent. None of these contenders, will likely sign the Section 84 of the Electoral Act.

Imminent Drums of War!

In Edo South, Governor Okpebholo, must take a frantic and conscious side and fund Direct Primary. This is where “No Automatic Ticket” comes alive. 

The recent false narrative made in a letter claimed to be written by Pastor Osagie Ize-Iyamu, to Prof. Nentawe Yiltwada, the National Chairman of the APC, dated 27th April, 2026, narrating that Ize-Iyamu is withdrawing from the Edo south Senatorial race, is a signal to the effect that, some persons are already feeling jittery, and are working assiduously to start a media war, before the Primary election. This is highly condemnable, as it is unhealthy for true democracy to thrive.

Using Edo 2020-2024 history in relation to the new directive:

1. The Governor Takes All The Blame: 

Feb 2024, Uzodimma took blame for guber mess to the NWC. Now, if Edo South Direct Primary should produce 3 “winners” or violence, Tinubu will blame Okpebholo directly.

     Impact on 3.5m votes promised:

1. The President will eventually not trust Governor Okpebholo's ability to deliver according to his promise.

2. Following from above, State Money Becomes Primary Funding: The Governor must fund venues, security, logistics for Direct Primaries in the 192 Wards. Same situation will also apply, come 2027 Presidential election. When that time comes, the opposition will be happy to tell the voters: “collect their money”.

3. Anti-Godfather Revolt Accelerates:

Direct system empowers Okpebholo to bypass godfathers. If he's successful, candidates that lost out, will eventually fight back in 2027 Presidential election, as some may eventually defect to other Political parties.

4. Defections Become Governor’s Fault:

For example, if Senator Neda Imasuen should lose out in the Direct Primary conducted by Governor Okpebholo, he may defect to another party with his followers, with the narrative that: “governor rigged me out”. If this should happen, the opposition gain, and may eventually get a Senator. This scenario may also,  play out in the aspirants for the House of Reps. 

5. No More NWC to Save the Governor: Under Uzodimma/Otu, the NWC could cancel and re-run. However, under the new directive, the NWC will wash their hands clean, and push all the blame to the governor. Their narrative will be: “governor, you conducted it, you should fix it”. The aftermath of all the 'push and pull', is that, Governor Okpebholo will enter 2027 with factional cases in court. Abuja bailout will at that time, be very difficult.

What Okpebholo Must Do Now to secure delivery of 3.5m votes Promised.

                           Options:                   

1. Consensus Where Possible. 

2. In Edo South, however, the options are limited. Here, consensus may not be accomplished. The governor must choose a horse: Ize-Iyamu can be preferred to keep structure and Edo South demand, or Ogbeide-Ihama to keep the crowd from the PDP group, or  Neda Imasuen to maintain fairness to making the three senatorial districts alike and preserve ranking in the red chamber.

Governor Monday Okpebholo may also heavily fund Direct Primary, win clean, and compensate losers same day, with Federal Board appointments. 

                      Bottom Line

The Direct system directive doesn’t kill consensus, rather, it kills cheap consensus. SWC can still deliver it, but Governor Okpebholo must personally pay the full price. In the Edo South majority, consensus is already seeming dead because the price and the dark cloud is already heavy. It means neither Ize-Iyamu, Ogbeide Ihama nor Neda Imasuen will be willing to accept financial compensation. This is a high risk political environment. In this case, Direct Primary may be inevitable.

To guarantee 3.5m votes: Okpebholo must use consensus, equity cum fairness to secure and lockdown Edo North and Edo Central, then spend money to win clean in Edo South Direct Primary, which will eventually erase any possibility of defections; because, every defector is a vote that President Tinubu won’t get in 2027.

President Tinubu's directive, aims at testing which governors can control their states without the NWC's interference. If Okpebholo can’t deliver Edo South without it exploding, the President won’t believe he can deliver 3.5m votes come 2027. Therefore, the Senatorial Election, is a litmus test for Governor Monday Okpebholo.

As we await the 2027 presidential election, Mr. President has handed governors a powerful instrument with which to deliver. In Edo State, however, Governor Okpebholo now faces a choice: use the instrument to confront his adversaries and bear the consequences, or accept full responsibility without shifting blame or seeking redress from the NWC.

I remain, Barrister-At-Law, Notary Public, KSM. And Officer of The Supreme Court of Nigeria.